See how this one-of-a-kind student report gives unprecedented end-of-year summative assessment predictions.
End-of-year summative assessments, whether they’re district or state-mandated, are often (or maybe always!) a source of stress for everyone involved.
Teachers, administrators, and students are left to wonder—did we do enough to prepare? With district report cards, grade advancement, and even student graduation on the line, how can we predict how students will perform?
While a real summative assessment crystal ball doesn’t yet exist, we might just have the next best thing. Our Middle and High School Math Solutions come with a supplemental program called MATHiaⓇ. It’s a one-to-one, AI-powered math coaching software that has our own crystal ball built in—the APLSE (pronounced “applause”) score.
A round of APLSE
MATHia’s Adaptive Personalized Learning Score (APLSE) Report is an AI-driven student report containing data you won’t find with any other online math coaching software.
When used in conjunction with our Middle and High School Math Solutions, the APLSE Report gives a snapshot of how students are likely to perform on their end-of-year summative exams.
The APLSE report uses MATHia’s AI to track key data points like how much time students spend in MATHia, how many workspaces they've mastered, the number of mistakes they make, and how often they ask for hints. From this, the AI creates an APLSE score for each student that teachers can monitor throughout the year, to see who’s on track to pass and who needs intervention.
Students successful in MATHia tend to spend 40–50 hours on a course, complete 1–2 workspaces per hour, and master 80% of the workspaces they encounter. These students are more likely to achieve an APLSE score of 70% or higher, which is a leading predictor of their passing their end-of-year summative assessments.
These correlations between APLSE scores and state summative assessment scores were found to be valid and strong across a wide variety of student demographic groups, school districts, and outcome measures.
How can we be sure? Our research team has conducted studies in states like Illinois, Ohio, South Carolina, Washington, and more. Check out the highlights below.
Illinois students increase IAR scores
An Illinois district shared data from 293 students’ 2021–22 and 2022–23 Illinois Assessment of Readiness (IAR) results, and the findings were clear—there's a strong connection between students’ MATHia performance and their IAR scores. Depending on the grade and school year, the correlation ranged from 0.60 to 0.80 (remember, the closer the correlation coefficient is to 1, the stronger the positive correlation is).
What’s more, for every 10-point increase in a student’s APLSE score, their end-of-year test scores rose by about 0.91 to 0.93 of a standard deviation—meaning a 14- to 17-point increase in IAR scale scores, on a scale of 650–850. In other words, students who earned more APLSE points received higher scores on the IAR.
Without a strong MATHia implementation, these Illinois educators would not have had a clear prediction of IAR scores throughout the year.
This scatterplot depicts the relationship between APLSE points earned and 2022-2023 Illinois Assessment of Readiness (IAR) scores. Each point on the graph represents a student. Students who earned more APLSE points received higher scores on the IAR.
Ohio State Test and MAP scores skyrocket
An Ohio district shared data for 2,565 students from the 2021–22 and 2022–23 Ohio’s State Tests (OST), and the results show a strong link between students’ MATHia performance and their OST scores. Depending on the grade, year, and test, the correlation ranged from 0.48 to 0.79.
Even better, for every 10-point increase in a student’s APLSE score, their end-of-year test scores jumped by 0.22 to 0.55 of a standard deviation. That means a 4- to 15-point rise in end-of-year scores, on a scale score range of 682–755 (depending on grade level). Another strong indicator that MATHia success = state test summative assessment success!
Above, the scatterplot shows the relationship between APLSE points earned and Ohio’s State Tests (OST) scores for Grade 6 in the 2022–23 school year. Each point on the graph represents a student. Students who earned more APLSE points received higher scores on the OST.
Another district in Ohio provided data for 4,047 students from the 2021–22 winter and spring NWEA MAP Growth assessments. MAP Growth scores showed a strong connection with MATHia performance, as measured by the APLSE score. Depending on the grade and test, the correlation ranged from 0.39 to 0.63. For every 10-point increase in a student’s APLSE score, their MAP Growth score went up by 1.3 to 2.5 points, within a possible score range of 100–350.
As seen above, students who earned more APLSE points received higher scores on MAP growth interim assessments on the Grade 7 Fall 2021–22 assessment.
South Carolina students crush SC Ready and Algebra I
A South Carolina district shared data from 17,378 students who took the 2021–22 South Carolina Ready (SC Ready) end-of-grade (EOG) tests and Algebra I end-of-course (EOC) tests.
The results showed strong, statistically significant correlations between APLSE scores and test scores. For SC Ready, the correlation ranged from 0.35 to 0.75, with the highest being for grades 6-8 (0.65 to 0.75).
Even more impressive, every 10-point increase in APLSE scores led to a 23.9- to 38.5-point boost in SC Ready scores (on a scale of 100–950, depending on grade) and a 2.1- to 2.7-point increase in Algebra I EOC scores (on a scale of 0–100).
This scatterplot depicts the relationship between APLSE points earned and SC Ready scores by grade. Each point on the graph represents a student. Students who earned more APLSE points received higher scores on the SC Ready.
SBA scores on the rise for Washington state
A Washington school district shared data from 3,347 students who took the 2021–22 Smarter Balanced Assessment (SBA). The results showed a strong connection between students' MATHia performance, as measured by their APLSE score, and their SBA test scores, with correlations ranging from 0.40 to 0.56 depending on grade.
For every 10-point increase in APLSE scores, students saw their SBA scores rise by 14.2 to 28.3 points (on a scale of 2230–2900, depending on grade), which equals a 0.13 to 0.25 standard deviation increase.
The scatterplot aobve shows the relationship between APLSE points earned and Smarter Balanced Assessment (SBA) summative assessment scores. Each point on the graph represents a student. Students who earned more APLSE points received higher scores on the Smarter Balanced Assessment (SBA) summative assessment.
What it all means
It’s clear to see that there is a strong, statistically significant correlation between APLSE scores and student achievement on end-of-year assessments. Here are our main takeaways from our research team’s numerous school district data reviews and peer-reviewed research into the efficacy of the APLSE model:
Note: A range of numbers is represented in the gains per 10 APLSE points column because state assessments use different score scales.
Get your own APLSE crystal ball
Ready to get more insight on how your 6–12 students are likely to perform on their end-of-year summative assessments? Check out MATHia, and get in touch so we can show you more
Before joining Carnegie Learning's marketing team in 2022, Karen spent 16 years teaching mathematics and social studies in Ohio classrooms. She has a passion for inclusive education and believes that all learners can be meaningfully included in academic settings from day one. As a former math and special education teacher, she is excited to provide educators with the latest in best-practices content so that they can set all students on the path to becoming confident "math people."
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